We Are Tomodachi Winter 2016

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26The primary goal of Abenomics is raising productivity growth. To raise its output per worker in order to maintain the standard of living, Japan needs reform. Many government policies including the Abenomics initiatives are delivering in this area. Fighting Against HistoryFor Abenomics to succeed, all three of its arrows—fiscal stimulus, monetary policy, and structural reforms—must contribute to accelerating productivity growth. Real GDP per worker in Japan has followed an S-curve over the last 60 years. In 1955 it stood at about JPY 1 million (USD 9,600), in today’s prices, per worker; after accelerating in the first 20–25 years, it has since then been decelerating. At around JPY 8 million (USD 77,000) today, it is still rising, but at a much slower pace.What Abenomics needs to do is to fight this history of deceleration—which is something that can impact all major industrialized economies, not just Japan—and thus increase the pace of growth again. With hard work, this can be done. Headed in the Right DirectionNearly four years since the launch of Abenomics, Japan is moving in the correct direction, with a number of successful policies. Two areas of particular success are agriculture and corporate governance. Agricultural reform in Japan presents a difficult political landscape, but progress has been excellent. We have now seen previously inconceivable reforms in the agricultural distribution system thanks to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s work to get things done. In corporate governance, we now see external directors at virtually every listed company. Having outside people on the board is quite helpful because they can be allies to bring in external opinion and help the decision-makers in the firm push things forward. In addition, the Stewardship Code put out by the Financial Services Agency (FSA) has been enormously successful in giving asset managers incentives to be tougher with the companies they own and better serve the needs of their investors. In government reform, too, I give Prime Minister Abe and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga credit for improving discipline in government. Their changes to the National Public Service Act centralizing control over promotions in individual ministries have produced a much more organized government. This has in turn had a positive impact on welfare, trade and industrial, tax, and other policies.Further Effort NeededWe’ve seen less progress in other areas, such as immigration policy. Japan has traditionally been sensitive to the idea of large-scale immigration. Given today’s demographic and labor market changes, though, the country clearly faces different conditions from the past. The government’s new panel for work style reforms, launched in September, is making some progress here. Labor reform is an area where the Prime Minister has been quite vocal, with his insistence on equal pay for equal work. He showed nimble leadership in organizing this panel, which will make its own proposals for labor policy reform by March 2017. I am hopeful that that committee will produce good proposals, and challenge the slower legacy commissions in this policy area.Energy policy also needs improvement. Japan’s total spending on energy, energy-related R&D, and so forth totals JPY 1.2 trillion (about USD 12 billion). Social security spending, meanwhile, comes to JPY 130 trillion (USD 1.25 trillion). Something is wrong when we spend that little on energy, particularly on technology, In Pursuit of Productivity: An Abenomics Report Card

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